US Oil Prices Maintain Upward Trajectory as Iran War Stretches to Three Weeks

US oil prices are maintaining their upward trajectory as the war against Iran stretches into a third week, with fresh price gains expected Monday at American gas stations. Analyst Patrick De Haan has projected that the national pump average could reach $3.85 per gallon, while $4 remains a possibility that cannot yet be ruled out. The sustained conflict has removed a degree of certainty from energy markets that will take time to restore.
Before the US and Israel launched their campaign against Iran on February 28, US gasoline prices were below $3 per gallon. Since then, three weeks of military operations have pushed the national average up 23% to $3.70, and each new escalation threatens to push it higher still. The combination of physical supply disruptions and market anxiety has proven difficult to contain.
Friday’s US strike on Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil processing hub, deepened global supply concerns at a time when markets were already stretched. Iran’s continued refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has kept approximately 20% of the global oil supply off the market. Brent crude traded between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude moved between $94 and $100 over the same period.
The domestic impact has been sharpest in California, where pump averages have broken through the $5 mark and some Los Angeles stations are pricing above $8 per gallon. Diesel users in the commercial transport sector face costs potentially reaching $5.15 per gallon nationally. Oil company executives from Exxon, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron have briefed White House officials on the deteriorating supply situation, with Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods personally warning about the inflationary impact of speculative trading.
US stock markets began Monday on a slightly positive note, with the S&P 500 up about 1% following a brief retreat in oil prices. Oil sector stocks have surged to historic highs since the conflict began, reflecting the financial benefit that elevated oil prices bring to energy producers. For American households and businesses, however, the energy crisis represents a mounting financial burden with no clear resolution on the horizon.