Conflict Shows No Sign of Easing as Oil Tests the $100 Level Again

The conflict in the Middle East showed no signs of winding down Thursday as Iran launched fresh strikes on energy targets, pushing oil back to the $100 threshold and stoking fears of a sustained supply crisis. Brent crude rose about 6% to nearly $98 a barrel after briefly touching $100.29 during the session. The persistence of elevated prices despite historic intervention by oil-consuming nations highlights the severity of the supply threat.
Iranian attacks targeted merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz, fuel tanks in Bahrain, oil tankers near Iraq’s ports, and the port complex adjacent to Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal. Three crew members aboard the Thai-registered Mayuree Naree were reported trapped following a ship strike. Iraq suspended all crude exports, and Oman cleared its primary export terminal of vessels.
Since fighting erupted on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively off-limits to normal shipping. The strait typically facilitates the movement of roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and gas. Saudi Aramco has flagged the risk of catastrophic market disruption if the strait and surrounding export infrastructure remains out of action.
The IEA released 400 million barrels from emergency national reserves in an unprecedented coordinated action. The United States announced a release of 172 million barrels from its own strategic stockpile, with delivery expected to begin within days. President Trump framed the action as a way to protect American consumers while the military campaign against Iran concludes.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank cautioned that the market is beginning to price in a more prolonged conflict, increasing the risk of a stagflationary shock. Asian stock markets fell, with Japan’s Nikkei down 1.6% and South Korea’s Kospi off 1.2%.